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I am a SW Engineer by Profession and a blogger by choice. I am a voracious reader and like to give my opinion about what i read. I try to convery my thoughts in a way that is meaningful and responsible. In my blog you would find me the way I am. I love to write about my take on the Society in general, Finance, day-to-day interesting events, me, inspirational thoughts. More about me as you read my blog.

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Location: Bangalore, Karnataka, India

Monday, July 14, 2008

Investor Vs Trader: Phillip J Roth

I was reading the following article.
An interview conducted by ramesh damani with Phillip J Roth (Supposedly renowned Technical Analysist in US).


The interview can be found at:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/fii-view/ -investors-make-bottoms-traders-make-tops-/17/06/343610

Phillip makes a very apt distinction between an investor and a trader. Please Read from the article and
I quote
Q: Moving from short-term to intermediate term, what is intermediate term?
A: I have more indicators that work in the intermediate term horizon, there are not that many indicators that one can use for the short-term. When you have a very short-term horizon, you are basically going to be using only the internal dynamics of the market itself. When you get to the medium-term now, I can look at measures of psychology and supply demand and also do market analysis. The most important technical precept to me is that ‘investors make bottoms and traders make tops’.

Q: Investors make bottoms and traders make tops, explain that?
A: An investor is somebody that’s motivated by price and value. If you a have long-term view you are not interested in day-to-day wriggles and when stocks go down they get cheaper and the investor gets motivated.

Q: Is that bargain hunting?
A: You can call it bargain hunting. As stock declines, it’s multiple comes down and yield goes up. People with long-term horizons get motivated to buy in that environment. Traders have the opposite point of view; they don’t care about value, they care about trend. They get motivated to buy, when the trend is strong.
Therefore, if the trend has been moving up at some point in advance, investors who bought them low are going to start to take profits. The trend would continue up for a while and perhaps for a long while because the traders are dominating and very bullish. What’s a top? A top would be that print in an uptrend, when prices stop advancing because investment liquidation begins to offset the buying by traders.
unquote


For another question on when the emerging markets would rise, I felt he was right here too and I concur with his thoughts read below...
I quote
Q: Looked at it now the Sensex has risen from 3,000 to 21,000 to the peak, what’s your call?
A: We are in a normal cyclical bear in most of the world markets. I doubt if they are going to begin in new cyclical bull and so the US strains out; the US is a big factor in the markets. We have got financial concerns in the US more than in other areas. So, it seems to me that we have got to get through the problems in the banking and financial service industries in the US. Once that is behind us, the rest of the US market will be in a better position to move ahead and we can start to look at the global markets again. But, they need to be tested by the rest of the bear in the US.
Unquote


BTW,
Ramesh Damani is doing a series of interviews with the leading Technical Analysists in US. The list of interviews can be found at:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/marketnews/news_inter.php

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